tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12673899.post5633393808433977217..comments2011-05-09T10:16:39.079-07:00Comments on From Capn's Pen: Updated pre-show odds: Pia leads the pack, Paul and Stefano in line for exitCapnpenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16178216888827316991noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12673899.post-86104403965977555212011-04-06T09:16:35.808-07:002011-04-06T09:16:35.808-07:00Yeah, you're probably right. But I just go whe...Yeah, you're probably right. But I just go where the data leads me. Right now, Paul still has a lot of popularity in one or two spots. Haley has started generating a lot more buzz. People are warming to Jacob a bit. Stefano is screwed. Unless there's a massive shocker, one of those four is going home. Only one of five people will realistically win AI 10 - Casey, James, Lauren, Pia or Scotty. But the data still says there's a mathematical chance for the others. Right now I have Stefano at 20-1 (5%) and Paul at 19.5-1 (5.1%). The actual oddsmakers have then at something like 28-1 (3.6%) and 25-1 (4%). When you're betting money, those differences in percentages might be significant, but here where we're mainly gauging chances of reaching the top, it's pretty slight.Capnpenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16178216888827316991noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12673899.post-46891449609635338562011-04-05T10:06:34.963-07:002011-04-05T10:06:34.963-07:00The odds seem very good to me, but I am wondering ...The odds seem very good to me, but I am wondering whether each of the long shots really has as much as a 5% chance to win. Not sure...<br /><br />Still wondering how much impact vote for the worst has on keeping Paul around...josephhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11163433220282003139noreply@blogger.com