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Sunday, May 08, 2011

UPDATED ODDS: James is solid, Haley moving up; Lauren becomes vulnerable

At long last, American Idol didn't give us a surprise Season 10 elimination. After watching Pia Toscano, Stefano Langone and Casey Abrams hit the bricks before their time, much-maligned Jacob Lusk finally got his AI pink slip. That leaves a very solid Final Four, though you might be surprised to find out who is most likely to win and who might be in line to go home next.

By all accounts, this is already a Scotty-James finale (in that order). Vegas oddsmakers have pretty much already booked that date. The only possible wrinkle in that set-up was a potential Lauren Alaina party-crashing, but now a new possibility is at hand: a James-Haley finale. The odds still favor Scotty reaching the Top 2, but Haley's string of strong performances has her gaining ground every day.

At present, Haley is still a longshot to reach the finale, but she now has a greater chance of doing that than does Lauren. Of course, that may change if Haley gets bumped to the opening slot in the Final Four. In the past two weeks, Haley has been favored with the closing spot; she's do for a move to the front of the show. However, no slot is immune to elimination in the Final Four. In Seasons 1 and 2, the opening performer was booted, but in the seven seasons since, the other three slots have dominated the eliminations (2nd, four times; 3rd, twice; 4th, once).

Though I'd love to be able to predict a James-Haley finale, at this point, anything other than a James-Scotty finale would be a huge shock. That being said, neither one among the best two voices in Season 10, which is why Idol is losing all remaining shreds of credibility. The show may continue to exist for grandmas and preteens, but legions of viewers are likely to dump the show after this season concludes. The jury's out on yours truly, but I will be following The Voice and X-Factor very closely in their respective first seasons.

Following are my updated odds for the Final Four for winning and elimination. Let us know what you think about these rankings and about this week's eliminations. Do you agree? Did Casey deserve to go home? And remember to follow this blog on Twitter at Also be sure to follow our Facebook group, American Idol Update.

Final Four (Odds to Win)
1. James Durbin (7/4)
2. Scotty McCreery (2/1)
3. Haley Reinhart (19/4)
4. Lauren Alaina (23/4)

Final Four (Odds to Go)
1. Lauren Alaina (2/1)
2. Haley Reinhart (3/1)
3. Scotty McCreery (4/1)
4. James Durbin (17/4)

1 comment:

joseph said...

yeah, i agree with your post. probably will not follow idol after this season. hate the way eliminations are chosen and hate that ass**** Nigel.

I think Lauren has a little less chance of winning than you give her, and think that scotty is quite unlikely to be eliminated next week, but your odds seem very good to me otherwise

i look for all solid performances from here out, field is really good. expect james to come roaring back. expect that some scotty fatigue may set in. if haley repeats last weeks performance (this would be extremely hard to do) she will become the favorite. Imagine that !