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Thursday, April 14, 2011

UPDATED ODDS: Chances high that a guy will be hitting the road

After last night's disappointing Movie Night, very little has changed in our odds to win or for elimination. Of course, based on the way last week went, who really knows who's going home? It certainly won't be based on talent, at least not necessarily. So going into tonight's elimination, we offer you the updated odds, but admit that when it comes to Idol these days, no one really has a clue anymore.
The judges certainly don't have a clue ... at least not about their jobs or responsibilities. Unable or unwilling to truly offer valid criticism, these folks are content to smell farts and call them roses. In my previous post, I told you the things that they're unwilling to say. So as you look at these rankings, realize that these are what the raw data tell us, and not necessarily the way things will be at the end of the night:

Odds to Win
1. Scott McCreery (3/1)
2. James Durbin (7/2)
3. Lauren Alaina (11/2)
4. Casey Abrams (17/2)
5. Haley Reinhart (21/2)
6. Jacob Lusk (13/1)
7. Paul McDonald (29/2)
8. Stefano Langone (20/1)

Odds to Go
1. Stefano Langone (4/1)
2. Paul McDonald (9/2)
3. Jacob Lusk (6/1)
4. Casey Abrams (7/1)
5. Haley Reinhart (9/1)
6. Lauren Alaina (10/1)
7. James Durbin (12/1)
8. Scott McCreery (25/2)

With Stefano Langone and Paul McDonald leading the way at the top of the "Odds to Go" and at the bottom of the odds to win, the likelihood that a man is leaving is greater tonight than ever before. Of course, the judges' lone criticism last night was aimed solely at Haley Reinhart, and she remains vulnerable in the middle of the pack. We do not believe that Jacob Lusk is in any danger tonight, in spite of two straight performances that were not well-received by critics.

Let us know what you think about these rankings and about the predicted Bottom Three. Do you agree? Who should be going home? And remember to follow this blog on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/capnpen. Also be sure to follow our Facebook group, American Idol Update.

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