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Friday, April 01, 2011

Updated American Idol 10 post-elimination odds!

This week we correctly picked two of the Bottom Three (Naima and Paul), which happened to also be the two we thought would be tabbed for elimination. While the pick of Naima seemed to be an easy conclusion, the fall of Paul into the bottom group seemed to be a bit of a surprise.
When our third pick for the Bottom Three (Stefano) was replaced by Thia, we immediately felt that the pick of Paul as the second elimination was exact. Instead, yet another female was kicked from the competition, which leaves six men and three women as this season's final nine. The odds now shift heavily toward Haley being the next to go, but Paul's stock has dropped so quickly that he can't be ignored either. Stefano is also very much in danger.

In two cases, the odds to win order do not agree with the odds to go. While Lauren is ahead of Casey in the odds to win, her odds to go are higher. And while Paul is still ahead of Stefano and Haley in the odds to win, his odds to go are now the highest of the remaining Idols. That is because the odds to win are based on a much broader scope. The odds to go look mainly at the most recent happenings and buzz. 

Coming out of last night's elimination show, here are our entertainment-purpose odds for the Top 9 of American Idol Season 10:

Top 9 (Odds to Win; Odds to Go)
1. Pia Toscano (4/1; 24/1)
2. James Durbin (5/1; 21/1)
3. Scott McCreery (6/1; 15/1)
4. Lauren Alaina (7/1; 15/2)
5. Casey Abrams (15/2; 11/1)
6. Jacob Lusk (21/2; 8/1)
7. Paul McDonald (29/2; 9/2)
8. Stefano Langone (16/1; 11/2)
9. Haley Reinhart (29/1; 7/2)

Let us know what you think about these rankings. Do you agree? Who do you think will win? And remember to follow this blog on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/capnpen. Also be sure to follow our Facebook group, American Idol Update.

2 comments:

joseph said...

i am curious how big an impact on Paul vote for the worst has .... it may keep him in this week

Capnpen said...

Vote for the Worst generally has a minimal impact from what I've seen. At best, they generate a small amount of buzz for an Idol, but rarely enough to save them. Right now, Paul's the odds-on favorite to go home depending on what happens Wednesday night.