As we head into this week's performance show centered around the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, not much has changed. The leaders who have led all season are still leading. The stragglers who have been struggling as of late are still at the back of the pack. And unless we have another shocking vote (ala Casey Abrams two weeks ago) we will see American Idol cut loose someone who has absolutely no chance to win Season 10.
In our Odds to Win, Pia Toscano has no change as the favorite at 4/1. Her closest competition still looks to be James Durbin, who has slipped only slightly to 21/4. Meanwhile, Scotty McCreery has moved up a bit to 23/4, and Lauren Alaina rounds out the top four remaining steady at 7/1.
The big change is who's at the bottom of the rankings. While Haley Reinhart is by no means a favorite, she's also no longer the heaviest underdog. Haley made a big move up to 7th in these rankings, leaving Stefano Langone mired in 9th at 20/1. Paul McDonald has plummeted quickly and is nearby at 39/2.
The big change is who's at the bottom of the rankings. While Haley Reinhart is by no means a favorite, she's also no longer the heaviest underdog. Haley made a big move up to 7th in these rankings, leaving Stefano Langone mired in 9th at 20/1. Paul McDonald has plummeted quickly and is nearby at 39/2.
The Odds to Go are largely consistent with the Odds to Win, though Paul McDonald is our pick as the mostly likely to leave Thursday night, obviously not taking Wednesday's performances into account. Stefano Langone, Jacob Lusk and Haley Reinhart are also all considered likely candidates for this week's exit. The least likely Idol to leave the Top 9 is Pia Toscano at 33/2.
Prior to Wednesday night's performance show, here are our entertainment-purpose odds for the Top 9 of American Idol Season 10:
Top 9 (Odds to Win; Odds to Go)
1. Pia Toscano (4/1; 33/2)
2. James Durbin (21/4; 13/1)
3. Scott McCreery (23/4; 25/2)
4. Lauren Alaina (7/1; 13/1)
5. Casey Abrams (9/1; 11/1)
6. Jacob Lusk (23/2; 13/2)
7. Haley Reinhart (18/1; 13/2)
8. Paul McDonald (39/2; 9/2)
9. Stefano Langone (20/1; 11/2)
Let us know what you think about these rankings. Do you agree? Who do you think will win? And remember to follow this blog on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/capnpen. Also be sure to follow our Facebook group, American Idol Update.
2 comments:
The odds seem very good to me, but I am wondering whether each of the long shots really has as much as a 5% chance to win. Not sure...
Still wondering how much impact vote for the worst has on keeping Paul around...
Yeah, you're probably right. But I just go where the data leads me. Right now, Paul still has a lot of popularity in one or two spots. Haley has started generating a lot more buzz. People are warming to Jacob a bit. Stefano is screwed. Unless there's a massive shocker, one of those four is going home. Only one of five people will realistically win AI 10 - Casey, James, Lauren, Pia or Scotty. But the data still says there's a mathematical chance for the others. Right now I have Stefano at 20-1 (5%) and Paul at 19.5-1 (5.1%). The actual oddsmakers have then at something like 28-1 (3.6%) and 25-1 (4%). When you're betting money, those differences in percentages might be significant, but here where we're mainly gauging chances of reaching the top, it's pretty slight.
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