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Thursday, March 17, 2011

New favorite on American Idol

After only three performance shows, a new leader has emerged as the odds-on favorite to win American Idol 10. Pia Toscano, on the heels of back-to-back-to-back dynamic showings, has leapfrogged the entire field and is now our pick to not only reach the Top Two, but to win the entire competition.

Our previous leader, Scott McCreery, is still in the hunt but has fallen to third place. Lauren Alaina, who was the early favorite, is still in second place.

Most of the rest of the field remains unchanged, though a couple of interesting developments have emerged. Stefano Langone's recent strong showings have pushed him past Jacob Lusk and Thia Megia into seventh place. And at the bottom of the rankings, there are some indicators that Haley Reinhart, who appears to be flirting with elimination, may not be as close to the bottom as we initially thought. In fact, she may be as high as in ninth place, while Jacob Lusk may be in danger of falling into the Bottom Three.

In spite of the apparent closeness of the odds, Karen Rodriguez is our overwhelming favorite to be voted off the show this week. Karen has fallen in popularity in every one of the indicators that we track and is solidly at the bottom in at least half of those. We believe that the remainder of the Bottom Three will include Haley Reinhart and Naima Adedapo, though some signs point to Jacob Lusk being in danger tonight.

Here are this week's rankings in the form of odds. The favorite, as always, is listed as even-money. These odds are not meant as an endorsement of gambling, but are listed only as a means of determining contestant strength, and are for entertainment purposes only:

1. Pia Toscano (1/1)
2. Lauren Alaina (5/4)
3. Scott McCreery (3/2)
4. James Durbin (3/2)
5. Casey Abrams (9/4)
6. Paul McDonald (5/2)
7. Stefano Langone (13/4)
8. Thia Megia (15/4)
9. Jacob Lusk (4/1)
10. Naima Adedapo (8/1)
11. Haley Reinhart (9/1)
12. Karen Rodriguez (10/1)

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