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Thursday, March 24, 2011

Updated odds! New co-leader after Motown Week!

As we continue to tweak our methods a bit, some new developments have arisen.


  • James Durbin has shot to the top as a contender for the Season 10 crown.
  • Lauren Alaina has slipped a bit and is no longer considered a favorite to win.
  • Casey Abrams and Paul McDonald are both trending significantly downward and are well out of consideration as favorites.
  • Jacob Lusk's performance wowed the judges, and appears to have won enough fans to keep him away from the Bottom Three.
  • Thia Megia, in spite of an apparently improvement, is still slipping quickly and is viewed as a likely inclusion in tonight's Bottom Three.
  • The other two in the Bottom Three will likely continue to be women. Naima Adedapo, in spite of good reviews for last night's Motown performance, is still at the bottom of the rankings, but Haley Reinhart isn't far off.
Going into tonight's elimination show, here are our entertainment-purpose odds for the winner of American Idol Season 10:

1. Pia Toscano (9/2)
2. James Durbin (9/2)
4. Scott McCreery (5/1)
3. Lauren Alaina (8/1)
5. Casey Abrams (12/1)
6. Paul McDonald (14/1)
7. Stefano Langone (15/1)
8. Jacob Lusk (15/1)
9. Thia Megia (17/1)
10. Haley Reinhart (37/1)
11. Naima Adedapo (38/1)

Even though Naima trails in the rankings, it's highly unlikely that she's going home tonight. It's much more likely that either Thia or Haley will be getting the exit, especially given Naima's performance slot of #10 on Motown Night (a slot which has been eliminated in the first three weeks only once in the past 10 years). We believe that Naima will be the first one sent back to the sofa, and that Haley Reinhart will be the one voted out tonight. We do not believe that the judges will use their save, in part because Haley has been in the Bottom Three continuously, and in part because of the enormous implications that would have on the Top 10, who all go on tour after the conclusion of the season.

Let us know what you think about these rankings and about the predicted Bottom Three. Do you agree? Who should be going home? And remember to follow this blog on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/capnpen. Also be sure to follow our Facebook group using the link in the righthand column.

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