Updated odds! Pia emerges as the leader (again) and Casey rises toward the top

Last week's surprise elimination revealed a need for us to change a few things in our odds, so this week we will start to present both "Odds to Win" and "Odds to Go" (which is obviously odds of elimination). Before we get to the odds, here are some notes after last night's performance show:

• Pia Toscano has reemerged as this season's odds-on contender for the win.
• Casey's resurrection has leap-frogged him over Lauren into fourth place, and he's almost on par with Scotty for 4th.
• Haley's strong performance of "Bennie and the Jets" has greatly improved the chances that she'll be around for another week.
• No performer who has ever performed 10th or 11th in weeks 4-6 has ever been eliminated. Jacob was 10th last night, and Lauren was 11th, and they're in the bottom half of our rankings, so that could change tonight, but we don't believe it will.
• Paul McDonald has fallen fast and is great danger of elimination tonight.

Going into tonight's elimination show, here are our entertainment-purpose odds for the Top 11 of American Idol Season 10:

Odds to Win

1. Pia Toscano (9/2)

2. James Durbin (6/1)

3. Scott McCreery (13/2)

4. Casey Abrams (7/1)

5. Lauren Alaina (8/1)

6. Jacob Lusk (12/1)

7. Paul McDonald (15/1)

8. Stefano Langone (18/1)

9. Thia Megia (18/1)

10. Haley Reinhart (32/1)

11. Naima Adedapo (36/1)

Odds to Go

1. Naima Adedapo (4/1)

2. Haley Reinhart (21/4)

3. Paul McDonald (7/1)

4. Thia Megia (25/4)

5. Stefano Langone (9/1)

6. Lauren Alaina (10/1)

7. Jacob Lusk (23/2)

8. Casey Abrams (37/2)

9. Scott McCreery (22/1)

10. James Durbin (30/1)

11. Pia Toscano (35/1)

Placed squarely at the top of the odds to go squarely at the bottom of the odds to win, Naima Adedapo is an easy choice for the first of tonight's two eliminations. Haley is next in line, but because of her pimp-spot finishing number, and because no singer to go last in weeks 4 to 6 have ever gone home, we're reluctant to pick her as the other home-going Idol. Instead, we're going out on a limb and predicting that Vote for the Worst's selection, Paul McDonald, will get his early release from Idol. We think that Stefano Langone will round out the Bottom Three, but will be sent back to safety for at least another week.

Let us know what you think about these rankings and about the predicted Bottom Three. Do you agree? Who should be going home? And remember to follow this blog on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/capnpen. Also be sure to follow our Facebook group, American Idol Update.